Norway heads to the polls on Monday in a closely contested and highly polarised election. Voters are focused on rising living costs, wealth taxes, oil fund investments in Israel, and relations with Donald Trump. This election has been described as the “Maga-fication” of Norwegian politics, with the populist right-wing Progress Party gaining unusual support.
The Progress Party, led by Sylvi Listhaug, could win and make Listhaug Norway’s next prime minister. Polls, however, suggest a narrow lead for the centre-left, indicating a likely continuation of the minority Labour government under Jonas Gahr Støre, who has served as prime minister since 2021. Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg, former NATO secretary-general, remains widely popular and may influence key decisions if Labour continues in power.
If Labour wins, negotiations with smaller left-wing parties could be complex, especially over oil fund investments in Israel. Stoltenberg has faced intense scrutiny over these investments, but his presence is seen as a stabilising factor in a tense election period. Journalist Shazia Majid said the vote has been “unexpectedly suspenseful” and sharply polarised. Class and gender divides, especially among young men, have influenced voting trends, with both sides mobilising supporters through contrasting messages and accusations of misinformation.
For left-wing parties, the Gaza war has become an important issue, particularly among voters with immigrant backgrounds and younger demographics. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party has lost ground to the Progressive Party, and the Green Party has seen unexpected gains. Election experts say key issues include grocery and energy prices, wealth taxes, healthcare, and international trade, making this election unusual for Norway’s typically domestically focused campaigns.
Johannes Bergh, research director at the Norwegian National Election Studies Programme, said Labour’s standing improved due to Stoltenberg’s appointment and Støre’s successful trade meeting with Trump. Many voters credit the government for handling international relations effectively. At the same time, the right-wing surge continues, particularly among young voters. Tactical voting and the performance of smaller parties, including the Green Party, Christian People’s Party, and Liberal Party, could determine the final outcome.
Norway traditionally sees high voter turnout, often between 75% and 80%, and early voting in this election has set new records. Peter Egge Langsæther, a political science professor at the University of Oslo, noted that Stoltenberg’s return last winter boosted Labour’s support dramatically, adding nearly ten percentage points in a short period.
Although the election began with controversy over the oil fund’s investment in Israel, it is not expected to drastically affect results. Recent polls indicate a very close race, with the left slightly ahead. If Labour secures victory, the minority government will likely continue with support from smaller left-wing parties. Henning Finseraas, a politics professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, said that the final result may depend on which smaller parties pass the 4% threshold, adding to uncertainty.
The outcome of Norway election 2025 will shape the country’s domestic and international policies for years. With polarised politics, debates over the economy, oil fund ethics, and international relations, this election remains one of the most closely watched in Norway’s recent history.
