As Canadians head to the polls on Monday, the dynamics of the federal election have shifted dramatically. What began as a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decade-long leadership has evolved into a complex debate on Canada’s future relationship with the United States, particularly under the shadow of former President Donald Trump’s influence.
In March, after Ontario Premier Doug Ford won re-election, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre reached out to Ford for advice. Ford shared the key takeaway: “It’s the tariffs, stupid.” In other words, Poilievre’s failure to address the issue of tariffs – a major concern for many Canadians – may have hurt his campaign, according to Ford. But Poilievre, despite this advice, did not shift his approach, which has left many questioning his strategy.
Why Trudeau’s Replacement Isn’t the End of the Story
With the election fast approaching, many expected the race to be straightforward. However, things are far from simple. Although the Liberals are poised to retain power, it is the rise of Prime Minister Mark Carney – a former central banker from the Northwest Territories – that may tip the scales in the Liberals’ favor. His calm, pragmatic leadership is a stark contrast to Trudeau’s increasingly unpopular tenure. This shift could give the Liberals an edge, potentially allowing them to secure a majority in the House of Commons.
This unexpected twist comes as the political climate in Canada shifts. The race, initially centered on a referendum about Trudeau’s leadership, has now expanded into a referendum on how Canada should approach its complicated relationship with the United States. The looming threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs and his ongoing talk of annexing Canada have caused concern across the country.
A New Political Reality: Two-Party Politics in Canada
One of the most notable changes in this election is the influence of American-style two-party politics on Canada’s traditionally multi-party system. For years, Canada has been home to a variety of smaller parties that have played important roles in both federal and provincial politics. These include the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois, which advocates for the rights of French-speaking Canadians in Quebec.
However, the political climate has shifted as many Canadians focus on the existential threat posed by the United States under Trump’s influence. As a result, many voters from minor parties are rallying behind the two main political forces – the Liberals and Conservatives – in an attempt to prevent a victory by the party they fear most. This shift has led to a marked decrease in support for smaller parties, including the NDP, which is expected to lose significant ground in this election.
Dan Moulton, a Liberal Party strategist, notes that the reason smaller parties have weakened is because voters are flocking to the Liberals to prevent a Conservative win.
Looking Beyond the Election: Canada’s Future with the U.S.
As Canadians brace for the election results, many are already looking beyond the immediate political future. The constant threats from the United States, particularly Trump’s repeated comments about annexing Canada, have stung deeply. Canadians, many of whom have close ties to the United States, are feeling betrayed by their southern neighbor. The ongoing tariff threats and the rhetoric about Canada being absorbed by the U.S. have only fueled these concerns.
For years, Canada and the U.S. enjoyed a close and friendly relationship, with many Canadians living and working in the U.S. or spending time in American states like Florida and Arizona during the winter months. But with the political climate in the U.S. shifting under Trump’s leadership, many Canadians are starting to view their once-friendly neighbor with suspicion.
A Divided Nation Heading Into the Polls
This election is more than just about choosing a government; it’s about defining Canada’s future in an increasingly polarized world. As the Liberals and Conservatives battle for control, Canadians are faced with tough decisions about who will best protect their interests on the global stage, particularly in relation to the U.S.
With both major parties vying for votes, the outcome of this election could reshape Canada’s political landscape for years to come. Whether the Liberals manage to secure a majority or the Conservatives regain power, one thing is certain: this election will have lasting implications for Canada’s relationship with its southern neighbor.
