The United States intelligence community has warned that instability in Gaza and broader regional tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran are likely to persist. This conclusion comes from the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, published on Wednesday, which outlines ongoing threats to global security.
Hamas Still a Threat Despite Setbacks
The 31-page report highlights concerns over Iran, Islamist militant groups, and state actors like Russia, China, and North Korea. Regarding the Israel-Hamas War, US intelligence assesses that Hamas remains a threat to Israeli security, despite suffering heavy losses.
“Even in a weakened state, Hamas continues to endanger Israel’s security,” the report states. The organization still commands thousands of fighters and maintains a vast underground network. Intelligence sources believe Hamas has used temporary ceasefires to restock weapons and reorganize, preparing for future conflicts.
The report also warns that Hamas has the capacity to restart low-level guerilla attacks, ensuring its dominance in Gaza for the foreseeable future. US intelligence officials caution that without a long-term political and reconstruction plan, years of continued violence and instability are likely.
Shifting Support Among Palestinians
Interestingly, the report notes declining support for Hamas among Gazans, though the group remains popular in the West Bank. In contrast, confidence in the Palestinian Authority (PA) continues to decline.
The situation in the West Bank is deteriorating, with factors such as:
- Weak governance by the PA
- Israeli security operations
- Violence from Israeli settlers and Palestinian militants
- Uncertainty over future Palestinian leadership
These elements, the report suggests, contribute to worsening conditions in Ramallah and beyond.
Iran’s Role in Regional Unrest
Beyond Hamas, the threat posed by Iran and its regional proxies remains a major concern. US intelligence highlights Iran’s influence not only in the Middle East but also in US interests worldwide.
“During the Gaza conflict, Iran actively supported its proxy groups in launching attacks against Israel and, at times, US forces,” the report states. Among Iran’s key allies, the Houthis, Iraqi Shia militias, and Hezbollah play significant roles in escalating tensions.
Key Regional Threats
- Houthis – Considered one of the most aggressive actors, the Houthis have targeted:
- Commercial ships in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean
- US and European military forces
- Israeli assets
- Iraqi Shia Militias – These groups are focused on:
- Forcing a US withdrawal from Iraq
- Pressuring the Iraqi government politically
- Launching attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria
- Hezbollah – While weakened, Hezbollah still has the capability to:
- Target US interests worldwide
- Threaten Israel’s security
- Destabilize Lebanon’s fragile political environment
Risk of Worsening Conflict
US intelligence warns that further conflict between Hezbollah and Israel could significantly impact Lebanon, leading to:
- Increased sectarian tensions
- Destabilization of security forces
- A worsening humanitarian crisis
While Hezbollah has suffered setbacks, the group retains its ability to strike targets beyond the Middle East, including potential threats to US assets and personnel.
The intelligence report underscores the high risk of prolonged instability in Gaza and beyond. Without a sustainable ceasefire and a clear political roadmap, tensions are expected to escalate further. The role of Iran’s proxies adds another layer of complexity, ensuring that regional security concerns will remain a top priority for US intelligence.
